In Brazil and many other countries, football is by far the most popular sport for sports betting. This popularity results in a plethora of betting options available on most sites, including individual bets and long-term wagers. Consequently, bettors are always looking for new statistics and information to base their bets on, and one of the most popular is “Expected Goals,” abbreviated as “xG.”
What are Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected Goals, as the name suggests, is a statistic used to evaluate the quality of goal-scoring opportunities created during a match. While “shots on goal” has been a common statistic for decades, Expected Goals aim to refine this information, providing a more accurate estimation of the likelihood that a specific opportunity will result in a goal.
Not all goal-scoring chances are treated equally. By analyzing various factors in each potential scoring opportunity, xG seeks to approximate the real possibility of a team scoring. Factors evaluated include the distance of the shot from the goal, the angle of the shot, the situation of the play (e.g., whether the player was closely marked), and whether the shot was taken with the player’s stronger foot (or with their head), among others.
How is xG Measured and Why is it Important?
The xG statistic is usually presented as a decimal number for each chance, ranging from 0 to 1. If a chance is rated with an xG of 0.7, for instance, this means that this opportunity is estimated to result in a goal 70% of the time. This might be expected from a shot taken inside the penalty area under favorable conditions for the attacker. Conversely, a shot from outside the area with a player’s weaker foot while being pressured by a defender would have a much lower xG.
From the above example, it becomes clear why many bettors like to use the Expected Goals statistic. In both cases, the chances would be counted as shots on goal, but one had a much higher likelihood of finding the back of the net. By summing the xG of chances created by both teams, the premise is to arrive at a more accurate picture of which team created more significant opportunities, something that wouldn’t be as clear from statistics like possession, passes completed, and shots on goal alone.
Are Expected Goals a Magic Formula for Betting?
Despite its statistical refinement, it is a mistake to think that Expected Goals is an infallible formula for betting, but it can certainly be used as an additional tool. A team that consistently has high xG is creating good chances and may only be failing to score more due to poor finishing or a striker in a slump. Conversely, a team that allows opponents high xG but concedes few goals might be relying on a brilliant performance from their goalkeeper.
Thus, while specific details or individual performances might make the difference, knowing that a team actually creates good chances (or prevents their opponents from doing so) can be a relevant factor in betting analysis. It is also worth noting that betting sites are aware of this metric and make their adjustments accordingly. Above all, following responsible gambling practices is what will ensure a good experience for the user.
